If There Is a Recession, It Has Already Happened
2023 doesn’t look nearly as bleak as consensus economic forecasts and financial news reports suggest.
by Bob Diamond, Larry KantorThe COVID-19 outbreak seems to have raised the odds of a global recession dramatically. But even if no downturn materializes in the near term, the outbreak, together with President Donald Trump’s trade policy, may herald the end of a peaceful and prosperous era.
by Jeffrey FrankelNow that the old rules governing macroeconomic cycles no longer seem to apply, it remains to be seen what might cause the next recession in the United States. But if recent history is our guide, the biggest threat stems not from the U.S. Federal Reserve or any one sector of the economy, but rather from the White House.
by Raghuram G. RajanUnlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.
by Nouriel Roubini