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| Thought Leaders: Investing |
Inflection Points
David Bailin
03/01/2008
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In August of 2007, a market
meltdown seemed certain. The news reported details on the subprime collapse
every day. Home prices began to fall, and real market volatility returned. Many
S&P stocks fell by 20 to 30 percent. The private equity market seized, and
buyout financing of $300 billion, confidently underwritten only 90 days before,
had no takers. Just as things seemed to be spinning out of control, the Fed
stepped in to reassure an uneasy nation. Yet by November the deterioration in
mortgage securities, housing prices and other fixed-income markets had spread
across the globe. Consumer confidence in the U.S. had not been restored by the
Fed’s action.
Hedge funds made money while equities lost value. | Investors took different lessons from the situation. Some
thought they had achieved optimal risk-reduction through diversification in
spite of owning no alternative investments, but they suffered real losses. The
wiser few saw the opportunity for profit and risk-reduction through the addition
of hedge funds and private equity to their portfolios. A little-known fact is
that through November, those with robust alternative investment portfolios
experienced less volatility and continued gains, on average.
Contrary to popular wisdom, now may be a good time to embrace
hedge funds and other alternative investments. History has shown that inflection
points in the markets, when securities valuations here and abroad are severely
imbalanced, have tended to be times of opportunity. When markets are volatile,
hedge funds buy mis-priced debt and equity securities and hedge them by selling
short indexes or other overvalued instruments. Because they focus on absolute
returns—how much they can make relative to zero—they are often profitable and
less volatile. For example, at similar times from 2000 to 2002, hedge funds made
money while equities lost value.
In times of fear, historically there have been wider spreads on
debt, lower earnings multiples on equity, bigger premiums for merger
transactions, and greater disparities in performance among markets in the U.S.,
Europe, Asia and the emerging markets—which have all presented opportunities to
talented alternative managers. During the dot-com bust, from 2000 to 2002, the
S&P fell by 37.6 percent and the Nasdaq dropped by 67.2 percent, while the
average U.S. equity hedge fund earned 4.4 percent. Alternatives zigged while
equities zagged.
Determining the right time to enter into an investment is
difficult, because inflection points are only obvious in hindsight. Yet there
are indicators that this may be such a time. Rising market volatility, a debate
about the probability of recession, unusual market conditions like those in
fixed-income securities, and the disparate views of central banks in Asia,
Europe and the U.S. indicate a financial-market tug-of-war. Opportunities for
long-term investors abound when market conditions are in doubt. Bad news in U.S.
residential real estate may have no major impact on commercial real estate here
and abroad. Private equity deals may be tough to accomplish today, but those
that are completed are likely to be of higher quality. In short, discerning
investors can change their risk-and-return profiles by reallocating their
portfolios.
Given almost universal anxiety among investors about the
markets, many advisors suggest alternative investments to deliver equity returns
without equity volatility and downside. Real estate, private equity, hedge funds
and venture capital have long track records of profitability through a wide
variety of equity and fixed-income market cycles. Sophisticated investors, such
as foundations, endowments and pension funds, have been using alternative
investments successfully for decades. A 2006 report by the National Association
of College and University Business Officers suggests that the most successful
foundations have the highest allocation to alternatives and achieve the best
investment results, marrying quantity and quality of alternative investments.
We will look back at this time in the financial markets with
wonder. An unprecedented residential real estate devaluation was underway even
as the economy grew, and highly rated bonds became junk in less than a year. Is
this an inflection point? It sure feels like one. But regardless of what history
will show, it is likely that those who have truly diversified portfolios,
including a meaningful allocation to alternatives, will have a smoother ride.
David Bailin is the head of the Alternative Investment Group, part
of the Global Wealth and Investment Management division of Bank of America.
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