As new technologies, cheaper
transportation and faster communication shrink time and space, a handful of
money managers believe that a specific approach to investing, called "thematic,"
is the best way to make investments perform in the global economy. The approach
involves identifying large social, political, economic, industrial and
demographic trends that are likely to play out over the coming years, then
constructing portfolios of securities that will benefit from those changes.
Some may dismiss this approach as a marketing gimmick. Because
trends take time to play out, specific returns data on this type of strategy is,
to date, scarce. Yet, proponents say the traditional strategy used by fund
managers—seeking investment opportunities in specific sectors, countries or
regions—is a mistake. "The central principal of our investment philosophy is the
belief that no company, market or economy can be considered in isolation; each
must be understood in a global context," says Ciaran Spillane, New York–based
head of Newton Investment Management’s U.S. business, which constructs all of
its funds on a global thematic basis.
Several large investment groups are finding value by taking a
single-system investment approach to the following themes:
Food.
At DWS Scudder, a U.S. division of
Deutsche Asset Management in New York, an investment committee came up with a
number of global themes that can be allocated to broader trends (see "Market
Themes," page 59).
According to DWS Scudder portfolio manager Oliver Kratz, his
firm’s latest theme is global agribusiness. By analyzing worldwide trends in
populations, household income, food consumption and agricultural production, the
committee noticed significant gains in household incomes in China and India. As
these households become relatively wealthier, DWS Scudder expects them to spend
more of their income on animal-based foods that they could not afford in the
past. The firm is interested in a range of companies linked to the agribusiness
theme, from biotech firms involved in the genetic modification of crops to
improve quality and yield, to land and plantation businesses.
Debt.
Spillane says the theme playing
into his firm’s portfolios is the rapid increase in debt levels in some of the
most advanced economies. "There has been a reversal in traditional debt and
credit roles on a global basis. The former creditor countries like the U.S. have
become debtor countries, and vice versa," he says. "Digging down deeper, we’ve
seen a very low interest rate environment in the U.S., UK, the Eurozone and
Australia. This has manifested itself in significant appreciation in residential
real estate and an explosion in consumer credit in these markets the last five
years, which has led to a front-loading of consumption." He believes that
companies reliant on these consumers for earnings will be unlikely to
significantly increase those earnings going forward. "The flipside of that is
that there are other parts of the world that have very high savings rates, have
underleveraged consumer populations and have residential real estate that hasn’t
really gone anywhere. They are likely to be the consumer drivers of the next
five to 10 years." He is therefore looking to take long positions in companies
reliant on consumer spending in places like Hong Kong and Malaysia, rather than
the U.S. or Europe.
Mass Affluence.
Nick Rundle, a portfolio manager
with boutique thematic investment house Taylor Young in London, sees
opportunity in the increasing numbers of wealthy and mass-affluent people in the
world, and how they spend their money. "Globally, we’ve been looking at buying
interest in companies like Tiffany and Porsche—those related to high-end goods
where the final demand is pretty insensitive to economic cycles," he says.
"Given the increasing numbers of high-net-worth people in the world who aren’t
particularly sensitive to mortgage rates and things like that, these kinds of
companies will tend to do well in up cycles and down cycles."
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