Worth: Some think all the liquidity from petrodollars and foreign central banks
is dampening volatility. Everyone worries about volatility rising. But who would
suffer if volatility were to drop even further?Bookstaber: All the broker-dealers
would have a harder time. There is a joke that ran on Saturday Night Live where in
the parody of the news they said: "Today on the New York Stock Exchange there
was no trading. Everyone has what they want." If volatility is lower, there is
less need to trade, so the broker-dealers will be hurt, and the hedge funds will
be hurt because most of these guys are liquidity providers. They are there to
provide liquidity to people when they need to trade. And there is not much
reason to trade, so the spread is not there.  | HEDGE FUNDS last year were complaining they were not doing
well because there was not enough volatility. Now they are saying they like volatility, but not too
much. —Nouriel Roubini | Roubini: Last year, hedge funds were
complaining they were not doing well because there was not enough volatility.
Now they are saying they like volatility, but not too much. It is an excuse for
them not being that great. There has been a proliferation of below-average funds
and managers.
Worth: Investors have put enormous sums into hedge funds and private equity. Are
there enough talented fund managers to justify this? Bookstaber: With all the different
kinds of hedge funds out there, I think it’s a question of whether or not there
are too many of them in any one area. There are, for example, only so many convertible bonds, and there are a lot of
convertible arbitrage hedge funds chasing after them. My feeling is that one area where the game is not going to be
over any time soon is in equities, at least not in specialized areas. If you are
in a specialized area, you are taking advantage of the fact that it’s a new
market and other people aren’t quite up to speed yet. When they figure it out,
your advantage is gone. Glassman: I think you are going to see
hedge funds making bigger bets on individual companies, including public
companies. We all have theories on whether we can beat the market. If there is
an individual who can beat the market, you are going to be far better off
investing with that individual, even with the high fees. Roubini: But 90 percent of hedge funds
cannot beat the market. And in this world, it is becoming tougher, because the
real alpha types are doing well, but they are the minority. And poor performers
can always close their fund and start another. The performance records don’t
reflect the ones that closed down. Berman: I think we are going to be in
an environment of fairly low returns and low volatility for a while, but I don’t
think people have adjusted to a world of lower expected returns. Investors are
going to look for that edge, which they will find in hedge funds or variations.
For this reason, the trend toward alternative asset classes will continue. I think insurance is going to be an important new instrument.
Underwriting protections against hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, for example,
is not correlated to the stock market, the currency market, interest rates, etc.
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