Elizabeth Harris
12/01/2006
Individuals might be able to make more confident financial decisions if only they could determine whether they would be among the 50 percent of Americans likely to live past 80. But guessing one’s own longevity is an inexact—and, for some, downright disturbing—exercise. A new field of study, however, is emerging in an attempt to bring statistical analysis to bear on this age-old question.
For many years life insurance actuaries have been predicting patterns of longevity in groups. Today some are applying their understanding about large populations to individuals. Individuals and financial services companies hire these so-called personal actuaries to estimate their likely age of death. Many find this analysis helpful for forming broad planning strategies or choosing among different insurance or annuity products.
"It’s very big in assisting seniors, especially in trying to help them decide between different options that can be very confusing," says John M. Bragg, chairman of John M. Bragg & Associates in Atlanta. Bragg, 85, spearheads today’s efforts; he has worked as an actuary for more than 60 years and served as both president of the Society of Actuaries and CEO of insurer Life of Georgia, A personal actuary estimate can also give people a sense of their health expectancy, Bragg says. For example, he can use data-gathering methods—similar to the ones he employs to assist insurance firms in assessing the likelihood of health, illness and mortality—and examine an individual’s medical history to estimate life expectancy. A 65-year-old man with diabetes would be expected to have 14.9 healthy years before needing an assisted living facility, with a total life expectancy of 22.6 years.
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