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| Visions and Revisions |
Finding Fortune’s Favor
Jan Alexander
04/01/2004
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You have predicted that some 14 million college educated workers in the
United States might see their jobs outsourced to India and other emerging
markets.
Everyone in the English-speaking world is frightened about outsourcing of
jobs, but it remains to be seen how it works. It is not affecting European
countries [other than the United Kingdom] because these jobs are being exported
to emerging markets where there is an educated English-speaking population, such
as in India and China. If I were George Bush, I would be very worried about the
junior financial analysts, radiologists, software engineers, architects and
designers whose jobs are going abroad. There are Republican voters from among
these ranks, and it is going to be an explosive political issue in the next few
years.
Remember, just to say I can move my jobs abroad does not necessarily
mean I should. An adverse exchange rate may make it disadvantageous. Also, the
supply of skills abroad may not hold up. In 2002 India exported only $6 billion
worth of software, while the global software market totaled $400 billion. It is
not that significant a player in that market.
Even the bold sometimes fail.
If you are not bold in the global economy, you will fail. If you know the
risks, it is easy to make a decision, but we do not know how technology and
globalization will affect industries. We have to be willing to tolerate a lot of
failures to find out what will work. Sooner or later every industry will face
the types of upheaval that the music industry recently endured. To survive, the
music industry leaders must find ways to use new technologies to lock up their
product so people cannot get it without paying.
I recommend that every
company establish a chief knowledge officer (CKO) position. This person would
provide honest intelligence about technology and its interaction with economics
and society, and how this will affect the company’s fortunes. Countries, too,
have to learn how to play the new economic game, and a national CKO is where the
future national economic edge may be found. Companies and countries need to
examine these issues now if they want to keep their competitive advantages;
catch-up is a much harder game to play.
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