On May 1, the day that Poland became a member of the European Union, Great
Britain opened its borders to Polish workers. It was a generous gesture,
considering that the citizens of the 10 new member-nations will not have full
free-movement rights until 2006. But it was also a harbinger of some uneasy
alliances that are beginning to form within the newly expanded EU.As the largest of the Central European countries, Poland is simultaneously a
wide-open investment market and a potentially serious competitor to the staid
Western European economies. A country that has earned a reputation for being
fiercely independent, it has become something of a disobedient child in the eyes
of the French and Germans. What was particularly notable about Britain’s gesture
of friendship was that France and Germany did not immediately follow suit. They
did, however, respond by inviting Poland and Britain to join them, along with
Spain and Italy, in a six-member EU directorate. That is distinguished company
for Poland and indicative of its ability to take its place in the EU. Poland faces growing competition itself from its Central and Eastern European
neighbors, all of which are benefiting from the region’s dynamic export-led
growth. Spurred by the economic rebound in Poland that has brought a 6 percent
surge in GDP in 2004, compared with 3.7 percent last year, Eastern Europe’s
overall growth is expected to be about 5 percent this year, with a 20 percent
rise in exports. Over the next decade, the region’s largest economy will have to
carve out a comparative advantage for itself within the “new” Europe. | The more economically successful Poland is, the more likely it
is to assert its independence within the EU. | While Poland does not have a great deal of natural resources or an iconic
product along the lines of French wine, Italian leather or German machines, it
has a geographic advantage and, increasingly, a cultural advantage of standing
as a bridge between East and West, so that in business deals it understands both
sides. As an exporter, it can accommodate both the high-priced,
quality-conscious market in the West and the price-conscious market in the East.
My firm has recently made investments in Romania and Bulgaria and, to strengthen
the businesses, brought in Polish managers, who are more experienced than their
local counterparts. Its market of 38 million consumers and a well-educated
workforce, with many people who know the languages and ways of the West
available at much lower wages, are an important attraction to investors.Poland and its eastern neighbors, however, have also been the target of public
outcry in the West, where jobs are being lost as companies outsource
manufacturing and back-office business services to the low-wage former Eastern
bloc. The French finance minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, has proposed offering
financial aid for companies that do not outsource. There also have been charges
that the low corporate tax rates in the East constitute an unfair advantage.
Poland levies a nominal corporate tax rate of 19 percent, while Germany’s is 38
percent and France’s 36 percent. This is an odd charge, given that the Western
powers invited the emerging Eastern Europe economies into the club in the first
place. They have, it seems, opened Pandora’s box. | Poland is already into its second generation of managers, who have been to
business school, often in the West, and are very much aware of the need to
measure up to Western standards. | Sarkozy has taken the approach that the EU should reduce aid for countries with
low tax rates, but, so far, other countries have rejected his proposal. The
Netherlands has taken the opposite tactic, proposing to lower its corporate tax
from the current 34.5 percent to 30 percent by 2007. Austria, Portugal and Spain
have also lowered their tax rates. The more economically successful Poland is, the more likely it is to assert its
independence within the EU, which will make for relations that are, to say the
least, interesting. Witness, already, the way it joined the United States in
Iraq, a decision that was a slap in the face to France and Germany after they
had lectured Poland and some other countries about how they should act. The
Poles were very upset about being told what to do. They want their legitimate
say in European matters, and they do not want to be treated as poor cousins.
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