Though investors relentlessly
search for the best-performing market segments, they often overlook the
impressive performance of domestic mid-cap stocks. With a three-year annualized
return of 15.42 percent, the Russell Midcap Index has handily beaten both large-
and small-caps. The Russell 1000 Index and Russell 2000 Index returned 9.84
percent and 11.95 percent, respectively, over the same period. The one-, five-
and 10-year numbers all show a similar trend of mid-cap success.
The simple explanation for this might be that mid-caps are in
the sweet spot of the risk-reward trade-off. They are typically growing faster
than large-caps, and yet have less risk and volatility than small-caps.
Mid-caps are in the sweet spot of the risk-reward
trade-off. | But one investor’s sweet spot is another investor’s no-man’s
land. As a group, mid-cap stocks, despite better returns, do not receive their
fair share of attention. In fixed-income investing, many individuals embrace the
notion of barbell investing—choosing two more-extreme options over the single
point in the middle, also known as a "bullet." Although one might apply this
same logic to other opportunities, it does not translate well into market caps
for equity investments. With the popularity of Morningstar-style boxes, some
investors and advisors tend to take a similar approach, looking to the corners
and ignoring the middle sections. They think that these are not pure plays and
that they have exposure to the higher growth potential of small-caps and the
stability of large-caps. But investors beware: A portfolio of some small-cap and
some large-cap investments will not necessarily average out and perform
similarly to that of a mid-cap portfolio.
Ironically, it’s the favorable combination of attributes
mid-caps share with other market segments that differentiates them. These are
the companies that have emerged from the populous small-cap universe, some of
which will continue along the curve to become large- and mega-caps. With plenty
of growth opportunity ahead and more-focused business models, mid-cap stocks
also tend to have higher-quality management teams, solid balance sheets and
better access to capital.
On the surface, this doesn’t quite add up. If mid-caps are
under-owned in terms of the number and assets of funds dedicated to the space,
and they do not get their fair share of attention from retail investors or the
financial press, then who actually owns the stocks? It turns out mid-cap stocks
are regularly the secret weapons of both large- and small-cap managers.
Small-cap portfolio managers often have exposure in the mid-cap territory
because they have owned stocks that have grown into mid-caps. They also seek out
mid-caps to provide extra stability. For large-cap managers, the universe of
true large-cap stocks is small, causing managers to have a difficult time
differentiating their portfolios from those of the competition; they all own a
lot of the same stocks. Owning an up-and-coming mid-cap stock can give large-cap
managers an edge, while usually boosting the portfolio’s earnings and revenue
growth rate at the same time.
While mid-caps offer less company-specific risk than
small-caps, there is risk to the asset class itself. The flow of funds from
large- and small-cap managers could potentially reverse. In rapidly changing
market climates, investors tend to shift bets at one end of the spectrum or the
other, and the middle ground gets left out. Additionally, the outstanding
performance that mid-caps have enjoyed could lead to a period of mean reversion,
where returns moderate. As some companies grow from small-cap status into
mid-cap territory, they become big enough that maintaining revenue and earnings
growth rates proves difficult. As growth rates moderate simply because of
company size, some mid-cap stocks can experience valuation compression.
Investors should be mindful of such situations, but also consider using these
periods to opportunistically build a position in a great company.
Chasing the best-performing asset class is not sound advice.
But investing in mid-caps is not about chasing returns. It’s about considering
exposure to a segment that represents a favorable blend of risk and reward.
Maybe one day this segment will be in the limelight, and that extra attention
might serve to enhance returns even further. But, for now, investors can follow
the professional money managers who already enjoy this sweet spot.
Ryan Crane is chief investment officer at Stephens Investment
Management Group in Houston.
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