Imagine a business with an annual
report containing nothing but revenue figures—and for only some of its
operations. That is what happens when we focus on GDP as an indicator of how
national economies are doing.Revenues matter, but costs are equally important in figuring
the true health of a business or a country. In a company, materials must be
bought, machines lose their usefulness over time, and buildings require repair.
Similarly, the economy of a country includes depreciation and the costs of doing
business. National accountants adjust GDP to arrive at a net figure that
accounts for worn-down roads and bridges, but there is more to a country than
its physical infrastructure.
We are aware that trees are important to the environment, for
example, but a tree doesn’t factor into GDP unless it is part of a commercial
transaction. The sale of a Christmas tree appears in the GDP. An identical
tree in the forest does not—at least not until it becomes plywood—and its
contribution to a healthy environment does not appear on the country’s balance
sheet.
GDP growth and overall welfare might no longer go hand in hand. | If these factors were included, the adjustments to nearly every
country’s GDP could be enormous. The cost of environmental degradation and
pollution in China is equal to about 8 to 12 percent of the country’s GDP per
year. That wipes out most of China’s impressive annual GDP growth, lately in
excess of 10 percent.
China announced earlier this decade that it would start to
calculate its green GDP, only to backtrack once the first numbers revealed some
bad news. That turn of events is not new. The United States followed a similar
path in the 1990s. It first started to measure subsoil assets, such as coal
still in the ground. The coal industry did not like the results, and Congress
soon bowed to lobbyists and included a line in the appropriations bill barring
any such future activity. That ban has since disappeared, but national income
accountants are still wary of doing anything too public.
Simon Kuznets—the father of U.S. income accounting who won the
1971 Nobel Prize in economics for his work—was the first to point to the
limitations of calculating GDP without factoring in costs. On one hand, it is
innocuous if the GDP feeds on a deteriorating environment: Companies produce,
which adds to the gross domestic product, and other companies clean up their
pollution, which again increases the GDP.
A large problem arises, however, with the way that GDP figures
are used. The press, the public and even some economists equate them with
statements about a nation’s overall well-being. And, up to a point, material
wealth does mean better living conditions. China in the last two decades pulled
more people out of poverty faster than any other country in history. Yet the
enormous deterioration of its environment is equally unprecedented.
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