Daniel Yankelovich
01/01/2006
Most of the time, the president and other leaders are free to ignore public opinion on U.S. foreign policy. This is because, unlike domestic policy, the public gives our leaders great latitude on foreign policy, feeling it is a subject best left to experts.
On some occasions, however, public opinion reaches a tipping point. When this happens, politicians ignore it at their own peril. A number of recent polls suggest that public opinion on the war in Iraq may be reaching such a juncture.
This is certainly true of Public Agenda’s new Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index (CFPI), which we recently launched in cooperation with Foreign Affairs magazine. Its purpose is to reveal how Americans’ views on foreign policy evolve over time. We want to track important tipping points and alert leaders to foreign policy issues where the public has grown anxious and urgent in its convictions.
The first CFPI poll shows the country manifesting an anxious and urgent state of mind about the war in Iraq and our relations with the Islamic world.
On any one issue there are three conditions to consider when evaluating a tipping point: the size of the public majority demanding action; their intensity of conviction; and whether or not they feel the government can do anything about it. At present, the one issue that comes closest to meeting all three criteria is Iraq and our dealings with Muslim nations. When respondents were asked in an open-ended question to name the most important international problem facing the country, the answers that came up most often were the Iraqi war and terrorism, followed by concern that other countries hold a negative view of the U.S.
What was particularly striking is the number of Americans who believe the Iraqi war plays an important role in stimulating hatred and mistrust of the U.S. in other nations. This concern was expressed in various ways. Nearly three out of four respondents said they worry (a lot or somewhat) that there may be growing hatred of the U.S. in Muslim countries, and an equally large majority said they worry that the U.S. may be losing the trust and friendship of people in other countries, including those that have been allies.
The neo-conservatives in the Bush administration brought us into the war on the platform that it does not matter if we are liked abroad as long as we are respected. In a half-century of conducting public opinion surveys, however, I have found that the majority of Americans unwaveringly believe it is important that others like us.
Dove Tails
Living with the daily threat of being hated by suicidal
terrorists has only fueled concern. In our survey, an overwhelming majority (87
percent) said showing more respect for needs of other countries would enhance
U.S. security, while almost two-thirds (64 percent) said the government should
put more emphasis on diplomatic and economic efforts and less on military
strategies to fight terrorism.
Barring major changes on the ground, I
believe the administration has less than one year before the public’s impatience
on Iraq will force a change in U.S. policy.
Public anxiety about the war in
Iraq is mounting for several reasons. People are beginning to feel that we are
trapped there, and may not be able to win. A majority of the public is deeply
distressed about both the continuing casualties and our failure to meet
objectives.
A confounding aspect about tipping points is that strong public
sentiment does not always indicate what specific course of action the public
wants the country to follow. It simply means that impatience is mounting and
that change is becoming imperative.
The first reading of our index shows
that the U.S. public is truly struggling with our role in the world. More people
believe that there are “too many things worrying and disappointing” them about
relations with the rest of the world (49 percent) than believe that the U.S. is
“generally doing the right things” (40 percent).
Americans are eager to
improve our relations with the Muslim world, and believe we have relied too
heavily on military force. The current level of discomfort with our foreign
policy is so high that future readings of the Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy
Index may well show mounting demand for change in our international
strategies.
 | Social scientist and author Daniel Yankelovich is chairman of Public Agenda, a nonpartisan research and citizen engagement organization. |