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| Calculated Response | ||
| What Bubble?
Russ Alan Prince & Hannah Shaw Grove 07/01/2007 |
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Just four years ago, real estate sellers, buyers and speculators were enjoying optimal conditions. Both the federal funds rate and prime interest rate were at or near all-time lows and housing prices were climbing. Sellers were able to price their homes higher than they ever thought possible, and successfully get their asking price or more. Meanwhile, homeowners were refinancing to create liquid wealth, and buyers were able to afford more than they ever dared hope. The American dream was coming true for everyone, both low-income citizens and the very affluent. As interest rates have climbed since then, mortgages have become less attractive. Home prices are sliding, but not at the same pace at which rates are increasing. These dynamics conspire to create a sluggish environment for home sales. On a relative basis, residential real estate seems downright moribund. This turn of events has surely affected low-income people, the middle class and even some of the wealthy—but the very affluent have experienced few of these shifts. This demographic continues to buy homes and improve them with renovations and additions at the same pace they did when the market was hot. To better understand the insulating effects of wealth in the real estate market, in the first quarter of 2003 we surveyed 308 affluent homeowners about their personal residences. In the first quarter of this year, we updated the survey, questioning 326 different (but similarly wealthy) individuals. This is what we found: • The perspectives and plans of individuals with a net worth of $1 million to $10 million have flipped 180 degrees from what they were in 2003. • Those with wealth in the $10 million to $20 million range exhibit similar behavior, but to a lesser degree. • The wealthiest segment, with more than $20 million in net worth, remain constant in both their actions and plans regarding real estate, as if there has been no change in housing inventory, prices and mortgage rates over the past four years. Ownership Is Waning Investments Only Increase in Value Again, the perspective of the wealthiest group hasn’t changed; they never viewed their personal residences as investments, and still don’t. They have no plans to profit from their real estate purchases and are focused instead on enjoying them. Concern for Value Driving Down Debt Home Improvements Still Desired Plans to Buy Derailed Despite the pronounced changes in the real estate market, little has changed among the wealthiest survey respondents when it comes to their perspectives on home ownership. The survey findings clearly demonstrate that families in this segment do not alter their plans or actions based on short-term market factors. Their position enables them to make purchasing decisions regardless of the macroeconomic situation. This includes the ability to buy homes that suit their preferences without having to consider current or future market conditions—behavior that is consistent in other areas of their lives as well. Families with a worth between $10 million and $20 million are more attentive to the overall market. Their perspectives and responses have become more moderate, but the degree of their personal wealth provides them with a comfortable cushion that helps to insulate them from unfavorable economic trends. The group most impacted by the reversal in the real estate market is the working wealthy. Among this group we see an overall decrease in the amount of real estate owned, less emphasis on their properties as investments, less spending on home improvement and fewer plans to purchase more high-priced homes. On the flip side, the working wealthy are more concerned about maintaining the value of their homes and are steadily decreasing their mortgages to avoid the threat of turning upside down if housing prices plummet. Russ Alan Prince is president of Prince & Associates, a market research and consulting firm for the affluent, and the author of more than 35 books on related topics. Hannah Shaw Grove, an author and columnist, is an expert on the behavior, concerns and finances of affluent consumers. |