Embraer, the Brazilian aerospace
company, will bring its VLJ to market last, but might be well worth waiting for.
Its as-yet-unnamed VLJ, slated for release in 2008, will be the largest (seating
eight) and fastest (Mach .7), as well as the priciest ($2.7 million).
The VLJ innovations will allow a lower total cost of
ownership, about $2.69 per mile versus $4.79 for a light jet such as a Cessna
Citation CJ1, according to an analysis by Bill de Decker of Conklin & de
Decker, an aviation consultancy in Fort Worth. “These jets will be cheaper to
buy, but as importantly, they will be far cheaper to operate than anything
currently available,” he adds.
“This has the potential
to be an air-travel
revolution. The
competition
. . . is intense.” |
Industry analysts agree that the most likely
buyers will be owner operators—doctors or entrepreneurs who fly their own planes
for business and pleasure. This group now buys about 300 jets per year. Cessna,
in particular, plans to target this segment. Adam and Eclipse intend to not only
sell to owner operators, but also to pursue the unproven market for air taxis
(see “Hail a Plane”). In the end, however, the prospects for the four
manufacturers will ride on two classic factors: service and safety.
For
service, Cessna has the clear edge. It already has nine company-owned service
centers around the U.S. Both Eclipse and Adam seek to emulate the Cessna model;
Eclipse plans to open seven dedicated service centers, and Adam plans
six.
Safety remains a tricky question for a category of planes without a
flight history. “You can’t just look into a crystal ball,” says Robert Breiling,
a Boca Raton, Fla., expert on small aircraft safety. As a proxy for VLJs,
Breiling suggests the next step up—light jets such as the Cessna Citation CJ1.
They have an excellent safety record: 0.1 accidents per 100,000 miles flown in
2004—eight accidents, including one fatal. For a closer comparison, experts
consider two other variables. First, VLJs will be a new type of plane, employing
new materials. Second, many VLJ pilots will have upgraded from prop planes and
will be unaccustomed to higher speeds. Because of these factors, Breiling
expects the VLJ accident rate to be about 20 percent higher, at least initially,
than the rate for light jets. Additional Information
Hail A Plane
|
