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My family office investment staff believes there is a significant risk that
equities will begin to underperform in the second half of 2005, based on the
dollar, $50-plus oil prices and the fact that the current bull market, which
began in October 2002, is now past its prime. We have 40 percent (or about $220
million) of our portfolio in publicly traded equities. A quarter of that is
concentrated in the stocks of five companies that our family built, which we do
not want to sell. What is the most cost-efficient way to hedge against a large
(say, greater than 10 percent) downturn in the market value of our equities
portfolio over the next year or two?This depends on whether you prefer to tactically change your risk for a brief
period (in light of immediate concerns) or strategically modify your family’s
risk more permanently. If the move is short-term, consider a derivatives-based
strategy. An overlay strategy utilizing a futures contract(s) can quickly,
easily and inexpensively (from both tax and trading-cost perspectives) alter
risk. Although more expensive and complicated, put options can likewise hedge
losses in specific family legacy positions. Yet derivatives bring new risks.
Futures contracts are far from perfect at hedging concentrated portfolios.
Counterparty risk needs to be considered. Moreover, derivatives can increase
ordinary income tax exposure.
Because it is nearly impossible to predict
short-term market changes, you might instead consider permanently restructuring
the portfolio. Broadly diversified global portfolios that include alternative
equity asset classes are often less expensive and more effective at reducing
downside risk than hedging with exotic strategies. Brent Brodeski, Savant
Capital Management, Rockford, Ill.
If you must hedge, purchase a put on a broad market index. The cost of
purchasing puts on specific stocks to protect against a 10 percent decline is
likely to be high. Assuming that most of the risk in the equity portfolio is
systemic risk, the costs of maintaining those hedges may outweigh the potential
benefits.
The bigger question is: How do you want to manage risk? Equity
market declines of 10 percent or more are common occurrences, and can occur
without warning. Hedging is just a short-term solution—which can become very
costly to maintain. It would be better to manage risk by deploying the rest of
your assets in a manner that eliminates your concerns about your equity
exposure. Then you will not need to hedge, and your family office staff will not
be called upon to attempt to predict the short-term behavior of the stock
market. Roy C. Ballentine, Ballentine, Finn & Co., Wolfeboro,
N.H.
The most cost-efficient hedge is to short the index most closely correlated
to your holdings. You could also short stocks closely correlated to the
founders’ shares. There are more effective strategies, but they carry higher
costs either in cash, opportunity or both. Before hedging, assess your desire
for safety vs. opportunity. While a perfect hedge limits downside risk, it also
caps upside potential.
Perhaps an imperfect hedge—one that allows upside
potential while minimizing downside risk—will best meet your goals. There are
scores of strategies available using options, futures and derivatives. Although
less cost efficient, they may be more effective and provide more capital
appreciation if your market assumptions prove incorrect. But before implementing
any hedge, circle back to your long-term investment objectives to make sure your
concerns cannot be mitigated by changing the allocation of your public
equities. John Bird, Albion Financial Group, Salt Lake City. Focus on solutions that minimize costs while maintaining as much flexibility
as possible to deal with future market conditions.
For option hedging, there
are two basic ways to go: custom options or market index options. Market makers
can tailor a solution specific to your situation; it will be expensive and limit
your future flexibility. Index options are less costly, but may not provide a
sufficient hedge.
Additional issues should be considered. With capital gains
taxes at only 15 percent, should you just sell some stocks? Would buying an
interest in oil and gas production satisfy the hedging needs? A more basic
question to ask: Although a downturn of greater than 10 percent is disturbing,
unless you must liquidate in the downturn, the loss is only temporary—so how
much hedging is appropriate? David Diesslin, Diesslin & Associates,
Fort Worth, Texas.
Send Us Your Questions. Are you wrestling with family issues, business
governance or succession decisions, investment or estate planning dilemmas,
problems related to philanthropic activities or foundations, or a similar
predicament? We invite you to email a detailed question to advisorsforum@worth.com. |