Why is it hard for some people, even people with a great deal of
assets, to save, invest and make sound decisions about
retirement?Why is it hard to save? Because it’s more
fun to spend! There are some really big issues of behavioral economics here.
Brain research indicates that it is important to try to get people to address
these issues using the front of the brain–the prefrontal cortex–where they can
reason and analyze. Unfortunately, many of us succumb to the emotional impulses
of the older reptile brain rather than the reasoned responses of the newer
reasoning brain. That does sound like a job for behavioral economists, or maybe
psychologists. No question about it. People really don’t
want to think deeply about their inevitable demise. I experienced this with my
neighbor. We were talking, and I said, "I know how old you are and how old your
wife is. Let me produce a plot of the probabilities, year by year by year, that
you will both be alive, that only you will be alive, that only she will be alive
and that you both will be dead." I produced the graph and gave it to him the
next day. Neither he nor his wife wanted to see it. But without seriously
considering such information, how can you even begin to make sensible decisions
about how much money to spend now? Do you think your current research is Nobel
worthy? No. Most scientific progress comes from
gradual accretion. For good reasons the Nobel committee will identify one, two
or three people with a body of work. Among other things, this helps popularize
the importance of science in the public mind. But will one or two people rise
sufficiently above the many, many researchers who are doing important work in
the field of retirement economics to be worthy of being singled out? Perhaps.
But I view my work in this area as applying a combination of fairly standard
economics and fairly standard actuarial and behavioral concepts to this
particular class of problems. I certainly don’t anticipate anyone looking at
anything I’ve done or am likely to do in this area and saying: "Wow, nobody
thought of that. What a huge breakthrough that was." What was it like to win a Nobel Prize? When people ask, I say, "First of all, it’s really nice. If
they offer you one, you should take it." It’s an incredibly heady experience, to
be sure.
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