As this magazine’s primary ambassador to the financial sector, I’ve met countless advisors who were addled by
second-rate minds, ensnared by their institutions’ implicit conflicts of
interest or just cheap salesmen in expensive suits. That’s why I
look forward to our October issue, when we reaffirm our faith in the ideal of a
financial advisor by finding and celebrating those with the keenest minds,
broadest views, firmest grasps of financial paraphernalia and largest reservoirs
of patience and insight. One advantage to my job is the access it provides to some of
the financial sector’s leading lights. These include the advisors on our Top 100
list, but also those individuals who work behind the scenes, without whom
advisors, even our Top 100, would be far less effective. These are the
investment strategists, product developers, sector and market specialists,
traders, tax wonks, estate planners, quantitative analysts, due diligence
experts and others who help advisors frame strategies and execute tactics. Our
job is to transform the insights we garner from these individuals into useful
pieces of journalism.
From time to time we encounter a "big idea" that is either too
iconoclastic or, frankly, too tenuous to put before our audience in a
traditional fashion. But these insights provide a view of how insiders see the
financial landscape for wealthy individuals evolving. To avoid wasting this
value, I offer here a few of the more thought-provoking predictions I have
gleaned from farsighted financiers in recent months: Everyone will eventually be a self-directed
investor. In the last two decades, middle-class
individuals have been forced to come to grips with a broad array of financial
instruments, as responsibility for their investment well-being shifted from
paternalistic entities, such as pension plans, to self-directed vehicles like
the 401(k) and IRAs. Private clients, their phalanx of advisors notwithstanding,
must now bear a similar burden as a result of the increasing complexity of
financial instruments and markets. Failure to understand the growing palette of
investment opportunities and their risks will limit a private investor’s ability
to strategize effectively with—and keep tabs on—his advisor and other financial
intermediaries, which is a prescription for underperformance, or worse. Complex financial innovations are bleeding into the private
client universe. Analytic tools (such as risk
decomposition, Monte Carlo simulations, stress testing, etc.), processes
(collateral management, volume-weighted average price execution, etc.) and
investment products (structured notes, credit derivatives, securitizations,
etc.) initially developed by banks and subsequently adopted by institutional
investors are now migrating into the private investor domain. This allows
investors to tailor their financial strategies to meet their unique goals, but
it also reinforces the need for wealthy individuals to acquire a fairly advanced
degree of financial understanding. Technology will empower private investors and transform the
private banking industry. Technology that gives private
investors a clearer view of their finances is evolving rapidly; but clarity can
lead to shock at the inefficiencies embedded in a portfolio. As private
investors obtain tools that provide holistic views of their financial lives, it
will transform their relationships with their advisors and intermediaries.
Increased transparency will boost competition, squeezing financial product
margins and rationalizing the pricing of various advisory services. This in
itself will shake out much of the deadwood in the advisory universe by exposing
its underperformance. Despite all this, the "velocity of wealth" will increase.
Much has been made of estimates that trillions of
dollars in wealth will be made liquid and transferred across generations in the
coming years. What is overlooked is that much of that wealth will disperse back
into the economy at large. Wealth accrues to intelligence; unfortunately, the
converse is not often the case, which explains why family wealth rarely survives
the second generation. One strategist predicts an accelerated churning of
fortunes, as value captured in existing family businesses is released by the
dissipating behaviors of ill-prepared heirs and becomes available through the
usual economic channels for investment in new wealth-creating enterprises. In a
variant of the economic concept of the "velocity of money," he refers to this as
an increase in the "velocity of wealth."
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